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Is Israel Prepping for Hezbollah War? 09/19 06:06
With Israel's defense minister announcing a "new phase" of the war and an
apparent Israeli attack setting off explosions in electronic devices in
Lebanon, the specter of all-out combat between Israel and Hezbollah seems
closer than ever before.
JERUSALEM (AP) -- With Israel's defense minister announcing a "new phase" of
the war and an apparent Israeli attack setting off explosions in electronic
devices in Lebanon, the specter of all-out combat between Israel and Hezbollah
seems closer than ever before.
Hopes for a diplomatic solution to the conflict appear to be fading quickly
as Israel signals a desire to change the status quo in the country's north,
where it has exchanged cross-border fire with Hezbollah since the Lebanese
militant group began attacking on Oct. 8, a day after the war's opening salvo
by Hamas.
In recent days, Israel has moved a powerful fighting force up to the
northern border, officials have escalated their rhetoric, and the country's
security Cabinet has designated the return of tens of thousands of displaced
residents to their homes in northern Israel an official war goal.
Here's a look at how Israel is preparing for a war with Lebanon:
Troops drawn from Gaza to the northern border
While the daily fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated on
several occasions, the bitter enemies have been careful to avoid an all-out war.
That appears to be changing -- especially after pagers, walkie-talkies and
other devices exploded in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday, killing at least 20
and wounding thousands in a sophisticated attack Hezbollah blamed on Israel.
"You don't do something like that, hit thousands of people, and think war is
not coming," said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who leads Israel
Defense and Security Forum, a group of hawkish former military commanders. "Why
didn't we do it for 11 months? Because we were not willing to go to war yet.
What's happening now? Israel is ready for war."
As fighting in Gaza has slowed, Israel has fortified forces along the border
with Lebanon, including the arrival this week of a powerful army division that
took part in some of the heaviest fighting in Gaza.
The 98th Division is believed to include thousands of troops, including
paratrooper infantry units and artillery and elite commando forces specially
trained for operations behind enemy lines. Their deployment was confirmed by an
official with knowledge of the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity
to discuss troop movements.
The division played a key role in Gaza, spearheading the army's operations
in the southern city of Khan Younis, a Hamas stronghold. The offensive
inflicted heavy losses on Hamas fighters and tunnels, but also wreaked massive
damage, sent thousands of Palestinians fleeing and resulted in scores of
civilian deaths. Israel says Hamas endangers civilians by hiding in residential
areas.
The military also said it staged a series of drills this week along the
border.
"The mission is clear," said Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, who heads Israel's
Northern Command. "We are determined to change the security reality as soon as
possible."
A 'new phase' of war
The military movements have been accompanied by heightened rhetoric from
Israel's leaders, who say their patience is running thin.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday night declared the start of a "
new phase" of the war as Israel turns its focus toward Hezbollah. "The center
of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces," he said.
He spoke a day after Israel's Cabinet made the return of displaced residents
to their homes in northern Israel a formal goal of the war. The move was
largely symbolic -- Israeli leaders have long pledged to bring those residents
home. But elevating the significance of the aim signaled a tougher stance.
After meeting Wednesday with top security officials, Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu declared: "We will return the residents of the north securely to
their homes."
Netanyahu delivered a similarly tough message with a top U.S. envoy sent to
the region this week to soothe tensions.
An official with knowledge of the encounter told The Associated Press that
the envoy, Amos Hochstein, told Netanyahu that intensifying the conflict with
Hezbollah would not help return evacuated Israelis back home.
Netanyahu, according to a statement from his office, told Hochstein that
residents cannot return without "a fundamental change in the security situation
in the north." The statement said that while Netanyahu "appreciates and
respects" U.S. support, Israel will "do what is necessary to safeguard its
security."
Is war inevitable?
Israeli media reported Wednesday that the government has not yet decided
whether to launch a major offensive in Lebanon.
Much, it seems, will depend on Hezbollah's response. The group's leader,
Hassan Nasrallah, is expected to deliver a major speech on Thursday.
But public sentiment in Israel seems to be supportive of tougher action
against Hezbollah.
A poll in late August by the Israeli Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think
tank, found that 67% of Jewish respondents thought Israel should intensify its
response to Hezbollah. That includes 46% of Jewish respondents who believed
Israel should launch a deep offensive striking Lebanese infrastructure, and 21%
who seek an intensified response that avoids striking Hezbollah infrastructure.
"There's a lot of pressure from the society to go to war and win," said
Avivi, the retired general. "Unless Hezbollah tomorrow morning says, 'OK, we
got the message. We're pulling out of south Lebanon,' war is imminent."
Such a war would almost certainly prove devastating to both sides.
Already, more than 500 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli strikes
since Oct. 8, most of them fighters with Hezbollah and other armed groups but
also more than 100 civilians. In northern Israel, at least 23 soldiers and 26
civilians have been killed by strikes from Lebanon.
Israel inflicted heavy damage on Lebanon during a monthlong war against
Hezbollah in 2006 that ended in a stalemate. Israeli leaders have threatened
even tougher action this time around, vowing to repeat the scenes of
destruction from Gaza in Lebanon.
But Hezbollah also has built up its capabilities since 2006. Hezbollah has
an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, some believed to have guidance
systems that could threaten sensitive targets in Israel. It has also developed
an increasingly sophisticated fleet of drones.
Capable of striking all parts of Israel, Hezbollah could bring life in
Israel to a standstill and send hundreds of thousands of Israelis fleeing.
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