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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/18 11:46
Strong Pork Demand Helps the Hog Complex Trade Higher
The cash cattle market hasn't seen any more trade develop, but if packers
don't want to be short in the weeks ahead, they need to buy more cattle.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is again trading mixed into the day's noon hour as the
cattle contracts continue to trade lower, but the hog complex is still inching
higher. No new cash cattle trade has developed yet but more trade will likely
surface ahead of the week's close. September corn is up 8 cents per bushel and
August soybean meal is up $3.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down
240.67 points and NASDAQ is down 21.41 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is continuing to trade lower as the market is no
longer seeming confident in the levels reached earlier this week. It's slightly
frustrating to see the futures complex trading lower while feedlot managers
were able to keep the cash cattle market steady to $1.00 higher in both
regions, but the fact remains that traders simply seem uncomfortable and
because of that, the contracts are trading lower. August live cattle are down
$1.05 at $222.62, October live cattle are down $1.45 at $218.87 and December
live cattle are down $1.50 at $219.05. No new cash cattle trade has developed
at this point today, but more business will likely need to develop ahead of the
week's end. Otherwise, packers run the risk of being short bought headed into
the upcoming weeks. Thus far, Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly
$380, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighed average. Southern live
cattle have traded at $230, which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week's
weighted average.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.77 ($374.05) and select down $1.00
($352.84) with a movement of 80 loads (57.80 loads of choice, 11.86 loads of
select, zero loads of trim and 10.05 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is continuing to follow in the live cattle
complex's wake, so it comes as little to no surprise that the contracts are
trading fully lower into Friday's noon hour. August feeders are down $2.55 at
$322.45, September feeders are down $2.75 at $322.67 and October feeders are
down $3.02 at $320.65. And at this point, it's unlikely that the market will
change its direction ahead of the week's close.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is trading mostly higher into Friday's noon hour as the
market continues to build of the positive technical footing in which the market
has established in the contracts, and upon the higher uptick in pork demand.
August lean hogs are up $0.30 at $106.07, October lean hogs are down $0.60 at
$90.00 and December lean hogs are up $0.15 at $82.47. It's rather impressive to
note this morning that there isn't one single major cut that's lower at today's
midday report.
The projected lean hog index for 7/17/2025 is up $0.30 at $107.93, and the
actual index for 7/16/2025 is up $0.43 at $107.63. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.19 with a weighted average price of
$106.41, ranging from $101.00 to $112.00 on 1,310 head and a five-day rolling
average of $110.41. Pork cutouts total 140.90 loads with 132.64 loads of pork
cuts and 8.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.23, $118.55.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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