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USDA Reports Preview 06/26 12:47
New-Crop Picture Begins to Take Shape With Updated USDA Acreage
USDA will release two major reports with results from the 2026 Acreage
survey, as well as the quarterly Grain Stocks report with inventories as of
June 1 on Tuesday, June 30.
Rhett Montgomery
DTN Lead Analyst
USDA will release two major reports at 11 a.m. CDT on Tuesday, June 30: the
results from the 2026 Acreage survey, as well as the quarterly Grain Stocks
report with inventories as of June 1. The reports have the potential to be
market-movers, averaging 20- and 34-cent price reactions over the past five
years for corn and soybeans, respectively.
ACREAGE
With the 2026 corn and soybean crops off to a decent start this growing
season, and USDA already forecasting the second-largest crops on record for
each, traders will be interested to see how USDA's acreage findings may
influence the new-crop balance sheets moving forward. Since 2000, the June
Acreage survey has underestimated USDA's final corn acreage figure only seven
times, but three of those instances have occurred in the past five years. Last
year's miss stands out as the highest on record, as corn acreage eventually
increased a staggering 3.6 million acres (ma) above and beyond the June
forecast. Following historically low response rates in the March survey this
year, USDA reportedly surveyed more producers this time around, which should
(hopefully) result in a reliable figure on Tuesday. For soybeans, the June
report carries the same tendency to overestimate compared to the eventual final
acreage number, with acreage increasing on only three occurrences over the past
decade, but with two of those in the past three years.
Since the March 31 Intentions report, the price relationship between
new-crop soybeans and new-crop corn has vastly favored soybeans, with the ratio
of November to December futures expanding from 2.33 in the middle of March to
2.61 as of writing this. A popular question through the spring, as well, was
how rising fertilizer costs, as a result of the standoff between the U.S. and
Iran in the Persian Gulf, would influence field decisions through planting.
Intuition would suggest that some producers may have leaned toward soybeans to
reduce nitrogen requirements. For Tuesday, the 16 firms surveyed by Dow Jones,
on average, see corn acreage falling 401,000 acres from the March guess to
94.94 ma. Naturally, the expectation among analysts is that the revision lower
to corn area will be reflected in higher soybean acreage, with an average trade
estimate of 85.37 ma. My personal forecasts for 2026 acreage are for 94.8 ma of
corn and 86.4 ma of soybeans, so right in the wheelhouse of pre-report
estimates for corn, but a touch higher for soybeans.
As for wheat, USDA will take another look at acreage on Tuesday, with any
changes likely to come via spring and durum area. It's difficult to tell
looking at the futures board recently, but just over a month ago, new-crop
September Minneapolis futures sat among two-year highs and briefly surpassed
$7.50. According to USDA, over 70% of spring wheat acres in the U.S. were
planted by mid-May when prices began falling sharply. While high prices through
most of the planting season may have influenced slightly higher area compared
to the March survey, spring wheat acres in the U.S. remain in a lower trend
historically, and high fertilizer cost ideas through planting may have also
played a role. The average trade guess for Tuesday is for 9.438 ma of spring
wheat and 1.969 ma of durum, both slightly higher than in March. Assuming
winter wheat area remains unchanged at 32.410 ma, total U.S. wheat area in 2026
will sum to 43.834 ma, still the lowest on record.
GRAIN STOCKS
Also set for release on Tuesday morning is USDA's quarterly Grain Stocks
survey, which will look into grain reserves around the U.S. as of June 1,
setting the stage for the final quarter of the 2025-26 corn and soybean
marketing year. For corn, the previous issues of this report found record corn
stock levels as of Dec. 1 and March 1. On Tuesday, the average trade guess is
calling for 5.392 billion bushels (bb) of reserves as of June 1, which would be
the largest for the date since 1988, if realized. I expect corn disappearance
through the third quarter of the marketing year (March through May) will also
challenge record highs, with my forecast being 3.6 bb of usage. My personal
forecast for June 1 corn stocks is for 5.475 bb of corn to be found on hand to
begin the final quarter.
For soybeans, it is very possible that usage through the third quarter will
stand as a record, and over 1 bb in the quarter for the first time ever, thanks
to record-high crush premiums as well as the delayed nature of the 2025-26
export program, bolstering shipments during the period. On Tuesday, analysts,
on average, expect USDA to still find 1.051 bb of soybeans on hand as of June
1, which would be the largest since 2020. My personal estimate is 1.024 bb,
which is directly in line with other firms' thoughts and would fit into the
narrative set by the WASDE balance sheet, targeting 340 million bushels (mb) of
soybean ending stocks by Sept. 1.
Lastly, wheat is unique in Tuesday's report in that the survey results for
June 1 stocks will also stand as the ending stocks for the 2025-26 wheat
marketing year, which ended on May 31. In turn, the figure will act to
fine-tune new-crop U.S. wheat supplies amid what is penciled as a historically
small harvest in 2026. For Tuesday, the analysts surveyed by Dow Jones are
leaning on USDA's recent WASDE reports and see June 1 stocks landing at 935 mb,
a six-year high, if realized. As for me, I am forecasting 950 mb of ending
stocks for the 2025-26 season when all is finalized. My reasoning is that I
believe USDA is slightly overestimating wheat exports throughout the year.
Ignoring quarterly imports for a moment, the Dow Jones estimate would imply 365
mb of wheat usage through the final quarter of the marketing year, a four-year
low. Total usage through the marketing year would sum to 2.03 bb and would be
the strongest in five years, if true.
**
Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, June 30, as we take
a deeper look into USDA's recent estimates and what they could mean for markets
moving forward. Questions are welcome and registrants will receive a replay
link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Tuesday's June Acreage
and quarterly Grain Stocks report webinar:
https://ag.dtn.com/26-grain-stocks-wbr-june.
Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com
Follow him on social platform X @R_D_Montgomery
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