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Ag Outlook Still a Struggle 09/23 08:39
Economists Debate Diesel Export Ban While USDA Questions Ad-Hoc Relief
Economists at an agricultural outlook forum questioned the impact of an
export ban on diesel, while there was also some disagreement over whether
farmers need more ad-hoc aid to deal with high diesel and fertilizer inputs.
Chris Clayton
Farm Business Editor
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (DTN) -- Agricultural economists at an outlook forum on
Tuesday cautioned against banning diesel exports, while USDA's chief economist
also suggested farmers aren't clamoring for additional ad-hoc payments being
considered by Congress.
While the higher grain prices are a welcome change, "Higher prices don't
mean a farm profitability problem is fixed immediately," said Krista Swanson,
chief economist at the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA).
Scott Gerlt, chief economist with the American Soybean Association (ASA),
agreed, adding that farmers who own their own equipment outright could be
breaking even, but others are still facing losses.
"If you owe a bunch of money with these input costs, it just doesn't work
right now," Gerlt said.
Swanson, Gerlt and others spoke at the Ag Outlook Forum hosted by the
Agribusiness Council of Kansas City and Agri-Pulse.
FARMER SURVEY
NCGA and ASA on Tuesday released a joint survey of more than 1,200 farmers
showing that "financial pressure remains widespread across corn and soybean
farmers."
The survey showed nearly half of farmers, 46%, are more concerned about
their farm financials than a year ago. Still, that figure is down from 65% last
year. More than one-quarter of farmers, 26%, are not sure how they will handle
projected higher input costs for the 2027 crop. Overall, 66% of farmers are
either moderately or very concerned about the state of the farm economy.
Of the farmers polled, 41% expect their corn crop to be at least marginally
profitable while 10% expect clear profitability in their corn crop. For
soybeans, 43% expect to be marginally profitable and 13% see clear
profitability for the crop. Roughly 24% expect to break even, while 13% of
farmers expect a loss and 7% remain unsure.
"Respondents are largely expecting to just cover costs with the current
crop, despite higher crop prices," the survey report stated.
DEBATE OVER DIESEL EXPORTS
While harvest season is underway, farmers are seeing higher commodity
prices. However, those gains are countered by record-high diesel prices, which
on Tuesday hit a retail average of $6.52 a gallon, according to AAA.
"This is a significant line item in the cost of production and growing,"
said USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez.
Along with the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran slowing the flow of
oil, Benavidez said global diesel supplies also have been affected by damage to
Russian refineries from the war with Ukraine.
As DTN has reported, there are growing calls in Congress and the Trump
administration to impose a ban or restrictions on diesel exports. President
Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday he has called for a ban, and a decision
will be coming soon.
Currently, the U.S. exports roughly 25% of its refined diesel fuel,
according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Agricultural economists had their own take on how a diesel export ban could
play out.
"Economically speaking, export bans are difficult to enforce," Benavidez
said.
While a ban would increase domestic supplies, there are questions over
whether the infrastructure is in place to move more diesel fuel around the
country at a lower price.
"I don't think that would be automatically a solution," Swanson said. She
added, "When we start playing a game like that, we start seeing retaliation on
our ag products."
Scott Meyer, a former USDA chief economist, said decisions such as export
bans can create other consequences that linger.
"This is not the action we normally take," said Meyer, who now is director
of the Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of
Missouri. "Very few actions in the government go away as soon as the need no
longer exists."
FERTILIZER IMPORTS
Trump on Monday also suggested on social media the U.S. was working on a
deal to buy potash from Belarus, which he said would be cheaper than buying
from Canada.
Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer markets for Stone X, dismissed
that idea as unrealistic. Since the war in Ukraine began, Belarus has been
landlocked, leaving it dependent on moving products solely through Russia.
Linville said that makes it unrealistic to expect large volumes of potash
coming out of Belarus to the U.S.
Currently, 90% of potash used by U.S. farmers comes from Canada while 7%
comes from Russia.
Linville had one suggestion. "Quit getting in fights with Canada. It's just
that simple. They are the single biggest manufacturer. They are the single
biggest exporter. Ninety percent of our imports are from Canada."
At an average of $495 a ton, potash prices this week are about $9 a ton
higher than a year ago. Anhydrous ammonia, a popular fall nitrogen application,
has been the fertilizer with the highest jump in prices, and is averaging $945
a ton, more than 20% higher than last year's price, according to DTN Fertilizer
Trends this week.
AD-HOC AID, ARC and PLC
While Congress works on a farm bill, Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman
John Boozman, R-Ark., told DTN Political Correspondent Jerry Hagstrom last week
that he still expects Congress to provide more aid to farmers this year.
Boozman said he had talked to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and White
House officials about the need.
In July, the House passed a budget that authorized $12 billion in additional
farm aid.
Highlighting both the fertilizer and fuel pressures, Linville said, "If ever
there has been a time to justify a payment to a farmer, this has been it."
Still, Benavidez later pushed back on the idea of more ad-hoc payments,
saying officials are hearing from farmers who don't support them.
"A lot of producers are telling us they are not in favor of additional
ad-hoc support and want to get back to letting those One Big Beautiful Bill and
safety net programs kick in and really take over as they were intended to,"
Benavidez said.
Richard Fordyce, USDA's undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation,
briefly discussed Agricultural Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage (ARC and
PLC) payments expected to go out in October for the 2025 crop year. Fordyce
said total payments are projected to run north of $15 billion.
Also see, "Lawmakers Weigh Export Curbs, Aid as Diesel Tops $6.50 Per
Gallon,"
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2026/09/22/lawmakers-weigh
-export-curbs-aid-6
Also see, "Johanns: Beef Imports Send Wrong Message, Hurting Ranchers Just
as Profits Return,"
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/columns/washington-insider/article/2026
/09/22/johanns-beef-imports-send-wrong-just
Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com
Follow him on social platform X @ChrisClaytonDTN
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