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DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends  10/27 05:00

   Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Lead Surge as Anhydrous Hits $940 Per Ton

   The average retail price of seven fertilizers increased by more than 10% as 
some prices near record highs for DTN's database. Experts warn supply and price 
issues could sway farmers' planting decisions around the globe.

Russ Quinn
DTN Staff Reporter

   OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to skyrocket into 
historical price ranges the third week of October 2021, according to sellers 
surveyed by DTN. All but one of the eight major fertilizers had price increases 
of 10% or more compared to last month.

   Leading the way higher is urea, which was up 26% compared to last month. The 
nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $735 per ton.

   Anhydrous was up 22% compared to the prior month. The nitrogen fertilizer 
had an average price of $940/ton. It's the first time anhydrous crossed the 
$900/ton level since the fourth week of November 2008. That week, the price was 
$946/ton.

   UAN28 is 18% more expensive looking back to last month. The fertilizer has 
an average price of $451/ton. UAN32 wasn't up quite as much at $492/ton, 13% 
more than a month ago.

   Potash is up 15% compared to last month and has an average price of $716/ton.

   DAP was 14% more expensive than last month with an average price of 
$810/ton. DAP crossed the $800/ton level for the first time since the first 
week of December 2008. That week, the price was $813/ton.

   MAP was 10% higher and had an average price of $863/ton.

   The remaining fertilizer, 10-34-0, was 4% higher compared to last month. DTN 
designates a move of 5% or higher as a significant increase or decrease. The 
starter fertilizer had an average price of $659/ton. That's still $200/ton more 
than what farmers paid at this time last year.

   On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at 
$0.80/lb.N, anhydrous $0.57/lb.N, UAN28 $0.81/lb.N and UAN32 $0.77/lb.N.

   Rising fertilizer prices could be affecting which crops farmers plant, not 
only in North America but also in South America, specifically Brazil.

   Dow Jones reported last week increasing fertilizer costs appear to be 
affecting planting of Brazil's corn crop. The scope of this situation, however, 
remains unclear.

   Arlan Suderman of StoneX said there are already unconfirmed reports of 
fertilizer shortages in Brazil.

   "Those shortages may become more pronounced, though, as we move into 2022 if 
we remain on the same trajectory," Suderman said.

   Dow Jones also reported higher fertilizer prices are affecting European 
plantings and may pressure the decisions of U.S. farmers if these higher 
nutrient prices continue.

   While there are no easy answers for farmers in the current market, there are 
important questions to ask. DTN Staff Reporter Emily Unglesbee outlines them 
here: 
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2021/10/26/fall-fertilize
r-dilemma-ask-four. 

   Retail fertilizer prices compared to a year ago show prices for all 
fertilizers have increased significantly.

   10-34-0 is now 45% more expensive, MAP is 81% higher, DAP is 82% more 
expensive, UAN32 is 97% higher, urea is 105% more expensive, UAN28 is 115% 
higher, potash 116% is more expensive and anhydrous is 122% higher compared to 
last year.

   DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from around 300 retailers to compile the 
DTN Fertilizer Index each week. In addition to national averages, MyDTN 
subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state 
averages, here: 
https://www.mydtn.com/agriculture/web/ag/markets/fuels-fertilizers%23!/fertilize
rs.

   An Illinois farmer is putting much thought into his fertilizer plans for the 
2022 growing season. You can read it here: 
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2021/10/20/urea-price-cli
mbs-26-since-mid-147.

DRY
Date Range                       DAP           MAP       POTASH      UREA
Oct 19-23 2020                   446           476       332         359
Nov 16-20 2020                   455           488       336         358
Dec 14-18 2020                   466           522       360         361
Jan 11-15 2021                   486           551       373         373
Feb 8-12 2021                    588           642       398         453
Mar 8-12 2021                    615           690       423         483
Apr 5-9 2021                     618           699       431         504
May 3-7 2021                     634           705       436         514
May 31-Jun 4 2021                652           712       443         524
Jun 28-Jul 2 2021                677           721       476         542
Jul 26-30 2021                   695           753       549         554
Aug 23-27 2021                   697           756       569         557
Sep 20-24 2021                   709           786       625         585
Oct 18-22 2021                   810           863       716         735
LIQUID
Date Range                       10-34-0       ANHYD     UAN28       UAN32
Oct 19-23 2020                   456           424       209         249
Nov 16-20 2020                   455           422       207         249
Dec 14-18 2020                   463           450       210         253
Jan 11-15 2021                   469           474       210         247
Feb 8-12 2021                    512           524       243         285
Mar 8-12 2021                    581           625       306         344
Apr 5-9 2021                     605           692       341         378
May 3-7 2021                     618           712       358         398
May 31-Jun 4 2021                619           719       363         412
Jun 28-Jul 2 2021                625           730       366         421
Jul 26-30 2021                   631           737       365         419
Aug 23-27 2021                   632           748       370         420
Sep 20-24 2021                   633           772       383         436
Oct 18-22 2021                   659           940       451         492

   Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

   Follow him on Twitter at @RussQuinnDTN




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